This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests somewhat and I enjoy the new selection of contests and prizes. The most important GPP is currently a $10 buy and $30k goes to 1st place. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
Money Game play of the week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m really not loving this slate to get money games, and I was just going to decide on the main event stack for my cash game play of the week. But, I can see the major event just scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I believe Shane Young creates a great cash game play. I don’t understand how high of a ceiling he has because I really do think this struggle goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting completed. I believe he’s a top floor because this battle should move all 3 rounds, but I presume he is the better fighter anyplace and I see him winning this battle with a combination of striking and wrestling. I really do think he’s 100-point upside into a decision, and I also think he could complete this fight. But I feel like he’s a safe play for 80+ and that’s why he’s my money game play of this week rather than my GPP playwith. GPP drama of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only real way Kang loses this fight is by becoming KO’d. He must be the far superior fighter on the mat, and I think he can hang the toes too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does possess hefty power in his hands I think Kang has a floor of 0 points, but this is exactly why he is my GPP play of the week rather than my cash game play of the week. In money, I wish to lock in high floors and that’s not what we have here. I like this for GPPs because if he loses $9.4k it will not matter how many things he’s, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a gain if he dropped a determination at the price and still scored 30-40 points, we would just need to hit on our other spots. We do not want 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. So, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside since he will be the fighter attempting to grapple and that I could see him becoming multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he has a 1st or 2nd round entry and I don’t expect for him to endure too long using Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I enjoy him as a pivot from a big name who might be more popular.
Underdog drama of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually choosing Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this struggle to stay standing for as long as it continues. I personally see this going the distance and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that’s the case, then I believe Gastelum has the maximum floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a fair number of shots. In addition, I believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion that he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that might not put him on the 30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or conclusion, he’ll probably be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That is why he is my underdog play of this week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must remain on new with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I have chosen him as my fade every time he’s fought so that I am going to roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey can possibly score tremendously is by getting a knockout win. He fails to strike a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and he will not be going for almost any takedowns. Even if he receives a conclusion win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that may not be enough to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x out of a fighter once I roll them and with his $7.9k price tag, that means I need at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 54-34 to get +177.13u (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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