BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 9 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Canada. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is undoubtedly the safest play on the board this week and she has 100+ point upside. She is a lock in my money matches this week and I actually don’t really see how she loses. I believe a submission could be Moras’ best opportunity but she is not capable of getting the fight to the ground, so that I see her getting dominated on the feet before the ref measures. She is by far my favourite play in the $9k range and she’s a -750 on the betting line. I enjoy playing it safer in money games and I think she’s a safe win this week.
GPP drama of the week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is a simple one for me and he’ll be the chalk of this week. I will still be obese on Merab though. His style is exactly what we want on DraftKings. He’s got a nonstop speed and he shoots takedowns very often. He’s 22 landed takedowns in his initial 3 UFC fights and that is his best route to victory in this matchup as well. Even with two losses on his album from these 3 conflicts, he still averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This is not my GPP play of the week since I understand he is going to win, I only know IF he wins that he will score highly, and that he should easily reach value on an $8.6k price .
Underdog play of this week — Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone — $7,800
I must pick Cowboy as the dog of the week. His struggles are always action packed along with the winner of the fight will definitely be about the first-place lineup. Particularly if it is Cowboy. He always scores over 100 points in his wins and he’s 5-rounds to work with here. I really don’t see a circumstance where he wins and does not wind up on the 25k lineup. I will be obese on Saturdays this week, however this is an all-in struggle for me. If Cowboy is not in a one of my lineups, then you are going to see Iaquinta there. I’m thicker on the Cowboy side though and I think he gets the job done by submission.
Fade of this week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be quite surprised to see Theodorou on the 1st place lineup this week. I would be surprised to see him get even 10x his $8k cost and that’s the reason why I will have zero lineups with him this week. Not counting his fight with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins before that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is simply bad for DraftKings. He will have to knock Brunson out whether he’s going to score highly and that he isn’t a power puncher. I believe you are better off carrying Elias by TKO on the gambling line at +870. I really don’t see any reason to invest in this week at GPPs since he does not have the ceiling we would like to win that large $25k. I think he is fine in money games as a 65-point win would not kill us . However he’s a simple fade of this week for me this Saturday.
Thanks for reading this and great luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown each fight on the card and provide my entire DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 71-45 to get +233.79u (+$23,379) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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